Trump’s reciprocal tariffs: what they mean for the UK, the US and its trading partners

In a press conference at the White House Rose Garden, President Donald Trump unveiled new "reciprocal" tariffs on imports to the US. These tariffs range from 10% for countries with relatively lower tariffs on US goods to 46% on Vietnam and 49% on Cambodia. The UK was spared the highest tariffs and given the lowest “discounted” rate.

However, it is unclear whether this will be in addition to the confirmed 25% tariff on car exports to the US.

While this may prevent immediate UK retaliation, the move is still likely to harm the British industry. Some of the lost exports of UK business to the US may be redirected to other markets like the EU. If the EU retaliates with tariffs on some of the most imported products from the US (such as cars, aircraft, pharmaceutical products), the UK may pick up some of the resulting lost US export to the EU.

The key issues with Trump’s Tariffs

Trump’s announcement highlighted several key issues. One major concern is that tariffs are typically imposed on specific products, yet he applied a blanket tariff rate for each country. This method suggests an arbitrary way of aggregating different tariffs, making the policy less precise and potentially more damaging. A more strategic approach would have been to adopt a more surgical selection of tariffs aimed at specific goods, for which the US has suitable domestic substitutes.

Another issue is that while Trump claims foreign countries impose unfairly high tariffs on US goods, he failed to acknowledge that the US itself applies high tariffs on certain products. There was no mention of reducing these existing tariffs.

The rhetoric used during the announcement was also misleading. Trump implied that foreign countries single out the US for higher tariffs. In reality, most countries apply the same tariff rate to all trading partners under World Trade Organization (WTO) Most Favoured Nation (MFN) rules. While some countries maintain higher tariffs to protect their (mostly developing) economies, WTO rules have allowed global tariff rates to decrease significantly over time, including those that are charged on US exports.

Trump also reiterated the claim that foreign countries will pay for these tariffs, boosting US government revenue and allowing for tax cuts. However, in practice, tariffs are paid by US importers, who will likely pass the cost on to American consumers through higher prices. This will disproportionately affect lower-income households, while any potential tax cuts would likely benefit the wealthy—effectively shifting more economic burden onto working-class Americans.

Will the tariffs bring manufacturing jobs back to the US?

Trump argues that these tariffs will encourage companies to bring manufacturing jobs back to the US. However, this is unlikely. High uncertainty makes businesses hesitant to relocate production, and the current US labour market is already tight. As of February 2025, manufacturing unemployment was just 2.9% (about 456,000 workers).

Even if companies wanted to move production back, finding skilled workers would be a major challenge. Any new jobs created in the US would likely come at the expense of other sectors, rather than increasing overall manufacturing employment.

Trump’s new tariffs risk raising prices for American consumers while straining trade relationships and causing major damage to the world economy. The broad, country-level approach lacks economic precision and could lead to retaliation from major trading partners like the EU and China.

While these tariffs are being promoted as a tool to revive American manufacturing, their actual impact is likely to be limited. Instead, they will contribute to global trade tensions, disrupt supply chains, and ultimately make goods more expensive for US businesses and consumers.