Real Estate & Planning Research Seminar by Dr. Davide Luca, University of Cambridge. Title: "Divided we spend: Brexit and the polarisation of consumer economic behaviours"

If you are interested in attending this Seminar please contact our Department School Office at repschooloffice@reading.ac.uk

Abstract: Does political polarization influence consumer economic expectations and behaviour? Using British household surveys and administrative data, we find substantial polarization in economic expectations and behaviour between pro- and anti-Brexit supporters following the landmark EU Referendum. Our findings demonstrate that the Brexit vote led to a systematic divergence between Leavers and Remainers in their assessments of the general economic outlook, personal circumstances, and spending intentions. Notably, these polarized economic expectations extended to actual behaviour as divergent expectations influenced individuals’ intentions to buy or sell residential properties. At the regional level, housing transaction data reveal that, post-referendum, areas with a higher share of Leave voters experienced relative increases in transactions. Overall, this paper contributes to understanding how political polarization can produce lasting effects on economic expectations that, in turn, shape significant financial decisions, such as real estate transactions.

Bio: Dr Davide Luca is an Associate Professor of Economic Geography. His research is interdisciplinary, cutting across Economic Geography, Political Economy, and Public Policy. Before joining Cambridge University, Dr Davide Luca was a Postdoctoral Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School of Government, and worked for the European Commission. He holds a PhD in Economic Geography from the London School of Economics and Political Science, where he is a Visiting Fellow.